The XPRIZE Carbon Removal team, in collaboration with the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), has published a new analysis on the strategies of the 20 XPRIZE Competition finalists for scaling carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and unlocking cost reductions going forward.
Acknowledging that the goal of removing 6–10 GtCO2 per year by 2050 will require scaling CDR in magnitude and lowering deployment costs, this effort sheds light on the exact steps that the XPRIZE finalists intend to take to reach these ambitious operational levels.
Specifically, the report provides insights into how leading CDR companies plan to grow from kilotonne to megatonne-scale projects in the following 5-10 years.
Comprised of projects ranging across different CDR pathways, the list of 20 finalists includes companies like Mati Carbon, NetZero, Vaulted Deep, UNDO Carbon, Planetary, Project Hajar, Arca, Skyrenu, Heirloom, Ebb Carbon, Captura, Airhive, Applied Carbon, Kelp Blue, Takachar, and Yuanchu.
While focused on different CO2 removal approaches, these companies, recognized for their promising solutions and ideas, unite around a common set of elements when it comes to scaling and cost-reduction strategies.
In that sense, to expand capacity and reduce expenses, CDR companies can utilize the following internal growth levers: future technology advancement, scaling, modularity, process optimization, and alternative revenue streams.
Besides these internal opportunities, companies also need to keep in mind the risks associated with external factors like financing costs, supply chain availability, logistics, energy, labor, water, and land.
Looking at the current state of the sector, the report notes that the challenge ahead is primarily focused on engineering and commercial optimization, rather than technological or scientific breakthroughs, as CDR has the potential to mature with the technology that already exists.
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Comparing future visions across finalists, the report highlights a wide variety of engineering and commercial strategies, even within common CDR pathways, that come with their own pros and risks.
Some companies choose to scale through components and facilities, while others rely on modularity. In regard to process optimization and automation, finalists are looking for standard best practices in industrial optimization and manufacturing.
When it comes to financing, there is no one single option, but rather an array of viable financial structures like project debt, credit revolvers, and leaseback structures, while cost reductions could be unlocked via byproducts, and partnerships can be a powerful risk-management tool.
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The report stresses that the broader CDR ecosystem needs to grow, including feedstock suppliers, component manufacturers, EPC (engineering, procurement, and construction) partners, logistics providers, and plant operators.
For CDR suppliers, the report highlights that they need to mature specific internal capabilities and external partnerships vital for their strategies, while offtakers should consider the strategic role they can play beyond just purchasing offtakes, and investors can structure investments to manage the implementation-heavy risk profile of CDR.
