The findings of the August 2026 Wood Mackenzie report, “Natural Capital: Unpriced Carbon,” indicate that the natural carbon sinks absorbing nearly half of all CO2 emissions are under increasing pressure, yet still remain unprotected by current policies and financial frameworks.
In 2025, oceans and forests absorbed approximately 40% of annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions, even as net emissions have risen by more than 80% since 1990.
Technological carbon removal methods contributed a mere 0.08 GtCO2 (far less than oceans) underscoring the pivotal role natural systems play in carbon sequestration.
Since 1990, global forest cover has shrunk by 1.5 million sq km (~580,000 sq mi), diminishing their role as a net sink.
Under Wood Mackenzie’s baseline scenario, forest cover is expected to continue declining through 2030, while global warming and wildfires further impair the forests’ capacity to absorb CO2. However, if forests are restored and protected, they could reduce emissions by 3 to 6 GtCO2 annually.
Relevant: New Study Finds Removing Livestock From Grasslands May Compromise Soil Carbon Sinks
Five major Earth system tipping points are permafrost thaw, the dieback of the Amazon rainforest, boreal forest fires, the collapse of coral reefs and the disruption of Atlantic Ocean circulation. Unfortunately, already happening and the consequences for ecosystems, fisheries and the livelihoods of billions of people could be severe.
Tech-based carbon removal remains limited
Even with the most ambitious climate measures, there will be significant emissions from the energy sector. To compensate for this, natural carbon absorption and technologies for its removal are needed. The reason for the slowdown of the development is the lack of financing.
Carbon prices are too low and do not reflect the true value of natural CO2 sinks. Higher carbon prices, more investment and swift policy action are needed. 2026-2035 is a crucial period because actions now will determine future carbon absorption capacity.
Roshna Nazar, senior analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Unlike the energy transition, which can accelerate in later years, ecosystem collapse is permanent on human timescales. Each decade of inaction removes future optionality.”
Read more: From Net Zero To Net Negative, A Playbook For Turning Cities Into Carbon Sinks
