The European Union (EU) is on track to miss its legally mandated 2030 carbon capture and storage (CCS) targets by at least 17.5 million tons per annum (mtpa), according to a new study by Wood Mackenzie.
Even under a best-case scenario where every project in advanced development proceeds as planned, the EU will fall 35% short of the 50 mtpa threshold established by the Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA).
The independent study, commissioned by industry majors ExxonMobil, OMV Petrom, Shell, and TotalEnergies, examines carbon capture, transport, and storage as an interconnected network.
It reveals that the legislative push to scale up infrastructure from a standing start has created a stark operational imbalance across the continent, with less than 6% of the targeted NZIA storage capacity currently operational or under construction.
Breaking the Deadlock of a Fragmented Value Chain
The core issue stems from structural fragmentation. While the NZIA attempted to break the classic “chicken-and-egg” deadlock by mandating storage capacity ahead of market demand, it left the capture and transport sectors to develop independently.
As a result, storage operators face strict legal mandates but lack the legally binding corporate contracts or pipeline connections required to justify multi-million-dollar Final Investment Decisions (FIDs). Reaching the 50 mtpa goal would require a five-fold increase in storage FIDs between 2026 and 2028.
Compounding this fragmentation is an ongoing deficit in capture supply and systemic project delays, which average 1.5 years across the bloc. For instance, the high-profile Porthos project has seen its commissioning pushed to the second half of 2027.
Relevant: EU CO2 Storage Capacity Falls Short Of 2030 Target
Of the EU’s planned 36.5 mtpa capture pipeline, roughly 11 mtpa of capacity, is at risk of becoming entirely stranded due to a lack of geographic proximity to planned CO2 infrastructure.
Ultimately, Wood Mackenzie’s economic modeling shows that current EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) prices fail to offset the levelized cost of CCS for projects nearing FID.
To prevent widespread asset stranding, the report concludes that European policymakers must shift from treating capture, transport, and storage as discrete industries and instead design frameworks that support the economics of the entire ecosystem.
Read more: Industry Groups Call For Phased EU Approach To CO2 Transport Regulation
