The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced the release of a new forecasting toolkit that will help operators of underground carbon dioxide (CO2) storage sites assess the likelihood and magnitude of seismic activity that could arise from commercial-scale injection.
The forecasting toolkit of DOE is called the Operational FoRecastIng Of INduced Seismicity toolkit (ORION) and according to the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s announcement, is developed jointly by two initiatives – the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) and the Science-informed Machine Learning to Accelerate Real-Time (SMART) Decisions in Subsurface Applications Initiative.
They are sponsored by the DOE Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. The toolkit is partly funded by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. It can be accessed here along with its supporting documentation.
ORION is an open-source, observation-based toolkit designed to forecast how potential induced seismic hazard may evolve in response to CO2 injection. It also provides details on proposed injection operations and informs on the seismic history at the site to forecast frequency and magnitute of potential induced seismic activity over time.
The effective forecasting of potential CO2-injection induced seismicity requires a robust understanding of the underlying physical processes and the ability to apply physics-informed and data-driven modeling approaches. The information can help with decision-making and be useful for a wide range of stakeholders in the carbon capture industry.