XCF Global, a leading player in the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market, is preparing for a high-profile IPO in the coming days, seeking to establish a foothold in a market poised for growth both in the U.S. and globally, according to its CEO Mihir Dange.
“We are really just at the inception point of what this market is going to look like over the next 10 years,” Dange said in an exclusive interview. The company’s strategy hinges on securing early-mover advantages in a market expected to grow exponentially as airlines race to meet carbon reduction mandates.
Crucial to XCF’s public debut is its newly inked 15-year agreement with energy company Phillips 66 for both feedstock supply and offtake—a move Dange describes as “a base case model which is mitigated and has upside.” The agreement is designed to ensure operational stability while giving XCF the flexibility to pursue better pricing opportunities. The agreement is designed to ensure operational stability while giving XCF the flexibility to pursue better pricing opportunities.
IRA Uncertainty Casts a Shadow
Despite the momentum, concerns loom over the stability of federal incentives such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The federal producer credits, vital for SAF economics, are set to expire in 2027. “..if federal credits left, there would be some type of state credits helping to push forward,” Dange assured.
In California, once the poster child for green fuel adoption, recent legislative changes have shifted momentum to other states. “We’re seeing a lot of that production actually moving out of the state and going into other states,” Dange observed.
But the company is betting on a shifting landscape across the country, where state-level incentives fill the federal gap. “Nevada is working on AB 481, which is potentially putting two and a half dollars of credits per gallon,” said Dange, emphasizing the importance of local legislation for future viability.
Emerging hubs like Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Washington, and Nevada are positioning themselves with new tax credits and rural development programs. “There are so many different business models that there is not one right answer,” he said, highlighting the industry’s experimental phase.
Still, the potential withdrawal of federal support raises broader questions about whether the reduced support in the U.S. can sustain the industry. “It would be foolish to think that a domestic-only strategy would be the only strategy going forward,” XCF Global’s CEO warns.
International Demand for SAF: Europe Leads, Asia Follows
Globally, the SAF sector is gaining steam. Europe, with its stringent mandates—2% SAF in 2025 scaling up to 70% by 2050—is leading the charge. “You cannot use book and claim to put it into the wing. You have to actually have the molecule into the wing of the plane,” Dange said, underlining Europe’s push for real emissions reductions.
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Other regions are quickly catching up. “Japan is looking at a mandate. Australia wants to put a mandate. China has targets,” Dange noted, painting a picture of burgeoning international demand.
CORSIA Demand and XCF’s Expanding Project Pipeline
This pipeline of countries and markets provides certainty for future plans and could tie in nicely with the aviation industry’s main mechanism for SAF adoption – the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA).
The sector’s adoption of CORSIA standards is creating a baseline of demand for low-carbon aviation fuel. “CORSIA and international mandates…will not change the supply-demand need that more infrastructure has to come up, period” Dange stressed.
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Looking ahead, XCF Global plans to leverage its first project’s success to launch additional production facilities. New projects will be shaped by local incentives, feedstock availability, and export opportunities, even involving complex logistics like “moving product from Reno to Europe” if economics allow.
At first glance this is a difficult moment for all carbon mitigating initiatives in the U.S. with various incentives being removed from the board and increasing uncertainty and risk. “That difficulty is also the opportunity that is born in the space,” Mihir Dange concluded.
Read more: Can Sustainable Aviation Fuel Fulfill Its Potential?
