California has a legally binding target to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045 and go net negative every year thereafter.
A new study from Stanford University finds the goal is technically feasible, but only if the state deploys proven technologies at unprecedented speed while investing in emerging and still-laboratory-stage solutions.
Published in Energy Policy, the study introduces a comprehensive model projecting emissions, energy costs, and technology deployment needs across multiple pathways. The findings underscore both the urgency and complexity of decarbonizing one of the world’s largest economies.
Three-Stage Pathway
First 52% (commercial technologies): Existing solutions – renewables, batteries, EVs, heat pumps, and methane from waste – could cut California’s emissions in half. These are available today but face permitting, financing, and supply chain barriers.
Next 25% (early-stage technologies): Emerging options such as zero-emission trucks, clean industrial heating, hydrogen fuels, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) could abate another quarter of emissions. Heavy-duty vehicles alone could deliver 12% of reductions if cost and performance improve.
Final 23% (research-phase technologies): Decarbonizing planes, ships, and trains, low-emission refrigerants, and large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will be needed to close the gap. The study estimates California must remove 45-75 million tons of CO₂ annually by 2045, through options like bioenergy with CCS and direct air capture.
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To electrify transportation, buildings, and industry, California will need 170 GW of new power generation and 54 GW of storage by 2045 – more than double today’s grid capacity. Clean, firm power sources such as CCS-equipped gas or nuclear could complement renewables and avoid excessive overbuild.
“California can build the infrastructure it needs to meet the 2045 mandate, but the state must implement policies to overcome regulatory and logistical barriers,” said lead author Joshua Neutel, a Stanford PhD student.
Policy and Economic Implications
The study recommends reforms to accelerate grid interconnection, streamline permitting, and maintain incentives for EVs and distributed solar. It also proposes recognizing CCS-equipped gas plants under California’s renewable portfolio standard and advancing “renewable fuels” made from biological feedstocks for hard-to-abate sectors.
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