by Sverre Alvik, Vice President and Director, Energy Transition, DNV
The world’s carbon clock is ticking, and time is running out far faster than many policymakers would care to admit.
Indeed, sobering analysis from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) was revealed recently, with the United Nations agency reporting that carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere soared by a record amount to new highs in 2024.
Continued emissions from human activities and an upsurge from wildfires were blamed, with warnings that this commits the planet to more long-term temperature increase.
Published in October, DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook 2025 revealed that the milestone once deemed essential to keeping global warming below 1.5°C, namely net zero global emissions by 2050, is all but out of reach.
Instead, DNV projects the world will hit net zero four decades later, around 2090, locking in an estimated 2.2°C of warming by 2100.
As this year’s outlook grimly underscores, decarbonisation is happening, but far too slowly. Even as renewables surge, emissions from oil, gas and coal continue to dominate the global energy mix, keeping the increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations on a record-breaking trajectory.
With emissions still rising, warming is locked in
Global energy-related CO₂ emissions hit 35 gigatonnes in 2024 and while DNV expects a gradual decline beginning in 2026, progress will remain incremental in the coming years. By 2030, emissions are forecast to fall only slightly to 34 Gt, reducing by almost two thirds to 14 Gt by 2060, well above what’s compatible with the Paris goals.
By mid-century, energy-related emissions are forecast to nearly halve, driven by electrification, renewables uptake and selective carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment. But DNV finds that net zero in 2050 is beyond reach and no combination of political will or technology makes a 1.5°C pathway plausible.
The global carbon budget (the remaining cumulative CO₂ the world can emit before exceeding temperature thresholds) paints a stark picture. The 1.5°C budget will be exhausted by 2029, and the 2.0°C budget by 2052. Beyond that, every tonne emitted pushes the planet into uncharted climate territory.
By 2100, the cumulative overshoot of 345 GtCO₂ will most likely result in 2.2°C of warming, even assuming rapid growth in carbon removal technologies in the second half of the century.
A new workhorse of the energy transition
If renewables are the energy transition’s engine, CCS is fast becoming one of its safety valves. Following years of promise the turning point has arrived, with capture and storage capacity expected to quadruple by 2030. By mid-century, 1.6 GtCO₂ per year will be captured, rising to 2.6 GtCO₂ by 2060, roughly 16% of global emissions by then.
That growth, however, is highly uneven. Europe and North America will lead deployment, each accounting for about 23% of global CCS activity, followed by the Middle East and North Africa (11%) and Greater China (8%). Most early projects are expected in industrial sectors (steel, cement, chemicals and maritime shipping) where process emissions are otherwise unavoidable.
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The manufacturing sector alone will make up 40% of captured CO₂ by 2060, with onboard ship capture and industrial CCS driving much of the expansion. In power generation, capture growth will come largely from bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), particularly in Europe and North America, where the technology provides an opportunity for net-negative emissions.
Still, despite these advances, CCS will capture only 6% of total CO₂ emissions in 2050, well short of what is required for any net-zero outcome.
The rise of carbon dioxide removal
Beyond traditional CCS lies carbon dioxide removal (CDR), technologies designed not just to prevent emissions but to draw carbon out of the atmosphere. DNV forecasts that CDR will grow to 1.1 GtCO₂ per year by 2060, capturing 42% of the 2.6 GtCO₂ stored that year.
Our report identifies BECCS as the dominant form of removal, accounting for 62% of total CDR. Direct air capture (DAC), while essential in principle, remains expensive, projected at just under USD 350 per tonne by 2060.
Even so, we expect DAC to contribute 420 MtCO₂ per year by mid-century, supported by carbon markets and compliance schemes.
2090 and beyond
Even with strong growth in CCS and CDR, net zero is still not scheduled to arrive until around 2090, four decades after the Paris Agreement’s original timeline.
By that point, agriculture, forestry, and land use (AFOLU) are expected to become net-negative, absorbing about 1.8 GtCO₂ per year by 2100, with global temperatures stabilising around 2.2°C above pre-industrial levels, with the possibility of slow cooling thereafter if negative emissions expand.
Power peaks, transport overtakes
The decarbonisation map is shifting and the power sector, historically the largest emitter, is on track to trim its emissions fastest, with an 88% drop expected by 2060 as wind, solar and storage dominate new capacity. Fossil fuel reliant plants will either retire or retrofit with CCS, or they will operate as ‘peaker plants’ a few hours every year.
By mid-century, transport becomes the world’s biggest emitter, responsible for one-third of global CO₂ output, driven by aviation and shipping where electrification potential is marginal and low-carbon fuels remain limited. Manufacturing follows closely, with emissions falling by 55% thanks to electrification and efficiency, backed by hydrogen and CCS.
Hard-to-abate sectors like steel, cement and chemicals are the next frontier and hydrogen, bioenergy and CCS will be key. DNV expects industrial CCS to capture 500 MtCO₂ annually by 2060, while hydrogen and its derivatives (like ammonia) power between 10–35% of aviation and maritime demand.
Emissions management becomes central
One of the ETO’s most striking insights is the reclassification of carbon management from niche climate tool to core energy infrastructure. By the 2050s, DNV projects large-scale carbon value chains, encompassing capture, transport and geological storage, will copy much of today’s oil and gas logistics, but in reverse.
While CO₂ dominates the discussion, we must also be conscious of methane (CH₄), the second-largest driver of anthropogenic warming, responsible for about 30% of temperature increases since the Industrial Revolution.
Encouragingly, methane emissions from fossil fuels are projected to halve by 2060, thanks to declining coal and oil use. But with natural gas projected to remain prominent through the 2030s, methane abatement, via leak detection, flaring reduction, and capture for fuel, remains critical.
A call for urgency, a call for integration
Taken together, ETO 2025 balances progress and peril, with electrification, renewables and CCS advancing faster than ever, but not fast enough to align with a safe climate trajectory.
The window to meet a sub-2°C outcome is narrowing and achieving even that outcome will require not only scaling capture and removal, but also embedding carbon management into every major energy, industrial and policy decision from now on.
The world’s carbon challenge is no longer about choosing between emissions reduction and removal but rather doing both at unprecedented scale and pace.
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