In a newly published report, Supercritical goes on a deep-dive exploration of the delivery risk of carbon dioxide removal (CDR), observing how it might impact demand from buyers.
Looking at a CDR market that has evolved from an initial phase of pledges and promises into an era where the first wave of multi-year agreements are actually reaching delivery milestones, the report notes that some suppliers are meeting the agreed delivery results, while many others are not.
When CDR credits are sold before they are actually generated, their delivery depends on the project being financed, built, scaled, and operated over time. Delivery risk is defined as the risk that a buyer does not receive the carbon removal credits they contracted—on time or at all.
The publication states that underdelivery is real and to be expected in long-term offtakes, referring to it as a structural component of multi-year agreements. With that in mind, it also stresses that underdelivery shouldn’t be feared but should be managed instead.
According to the Supercritical report, buyers should aim for detailed contracts that specify how shortfalls are handled before they occur and should avoid relying on a single CDR pathway, focusing on diversified portfolios instead that would allow them to stay on track even if individual projects experience underdelivery.
To that end, it highlights that even biochar—the most mature CDR pathway on the market—delivered 54% fewer tonnes in 2025 than originally forecasted for that year.
While many suppliers expected 2025 to be the year they scale from pilots into industrial-level projects, the report highlights that three-quarters of projects have revised their delivery projections downwards.
This, the publication argues, underlines the importance of buyers factoring in underdeliveries in their plans, expecting even bigger gaps in pathways that are less proven.
Relevant: New Supercritical Offering Opens Doors For More CDR Buyers
When procuring CDR, buyers need to look at the technology and financing risks, as well as those related to development and operations, along with external factors such as policy changes, restrictions, and extreme weather conditions.
On its end, as a carbon removal marketplace, Supercritical lowers the delivery risk by considering it as a factor when evaluating project quality and by partnering with early-stage projects, helping them become more bankable and reliable.
The full report and in-depth analysis can be found here.
Read more: Supercritical Releases New Guide On Structuring Biochar Offtake Agreements
