A research team from the Institute of Carbon Neutrality at Peking University (PKU) has published a study providing insights on China’s carbon removal potential via forestation.
The study, published in Nature Communications, was led by Professor Piao Shilong and co-authored by He Yue, Assistant Researcher at Peking University, and Thomas Gasser from IIASA.
In it, the research team provided data that paints a clearer picture of China’s capacity for carbon dioxide removal through land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF), a sector labeled as vital for reaching the country’s goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2060.
Using a projection model called OSCAR-China, a system specifically tailored for the country’s needs that offers a better accuracy rate than other methodologies, the research team was able to deliver data that could help policymakers reshape China’s approach to addressing CO2 emissions.
According to the study results, China’s ongoing forestation activity, which is centered around planting trees and restoring forests, has turned the land-use changes in the country into a meaningful carbon sink, leading to more carbon absorbed by the land than is emitted.
The research team noted that if China continues with its current rate of afforestation, its forests could remove a big portion of emissions from hard-to-abate sectors like energy and industry, leading to the removal of one-third of the emissions that will remain difficult to curb by 2060.
As impactful as this decarbonization method could be, the research team warns that over time, as new land for planting forests becomes limited, the carbon sequestration power of forestry will slow down, leading to a decline in the period after the mid-century.
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Lastly, the research results underline the need for long-term strategies, pointing out that forestation efforts should extend beyond 2035, when China’s current forestation targets are expected to be completed.
This continued expansion will ensure that China is employing the maximum carbon removal potential of the LULUCF field on its path towards a more sustainable future.
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