In a newly published study, researchers from Oxford University warn that by overrelying on future carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in their climate targets strategies, countries risk breaching international laws when these solutions are treated as a substitute for rapid emissions cuts.
While noting that nature- and technology-based CDR solutions will be necessary for reaching net-zero within set deadlines, the study warns that the heavy leaning on these technologies risks clashing with established international legal principles, which require countries to pursue deep, near-term emissions reductions and be wary of the uncertainties around large-scale CDR deployments.
According to the publication, overbetting on CDR could be in conflict with the legal guardrails put in place by international laws, such as the harm prevention principle and due diligence standards provided in the 2025 climate advisory opinion by the International Court of Justice.
If countries overpursue future removals, this could result in a dangerous overshoot of the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, which is something states are legally bound to reduce.
Professor Lavanya Rajamani of Oxford’s Faculty of Law explained, “In an uncertain world, some states are gambling on the future deployment of CDR techniques to meet their climate targets in place of more ambitious near-term mitigation measures.”
“Our findings emphasize that near-term emissions reductions and feasible CDR strategies are not only ethical imperatives; they are legal requirements,” she added.
To address this potential risk, the study identifies substantive guardrails such as working with a primary focus on emissions reductions, ensuring carbon removal approaches are feasible in both technical and social terms, and curbing the reliance on international carbon credits, as well as operational ones, including operating transparently around emissions projections, CDR pathways, and modelling assumptions.
Relevant: Leading Climate Institutes Find G20 Pledges Lagging On CDR As A Complementary Tool To Emission Cuts
Published as a collaborative work between Oxford, Imperial College London, and other European institutions, the study comes at a time of increasing talks around the role of carbon removals in net-zero plans.
In it, the authors state that in order to align net-zero strategies with the guardrails provided in international law, countries will need to put immediate emissions reductions at the center of their efforts and pair them with a more realistic and transparent use of CDR.
Read more: EU Adopts The World’s First Voluntary Standard For Permanent CDR
