The global carbon market is entering a period of structural change, with new compliance programs, long-term contracting and rising demand for high-integrity credits expected to reshape supply, pricing and corporate purchasing strategies in 2026, according to a new report by Abatable.
The report, titled The Carbon Market Dimensions that Matter in 2026, identifies a shift away from opportunistic purchasing toward structured portfolios designed to manage delivery, reputational and performance risks.
Compliance schemes are emerging as a key source of demand. The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) is projected to add about 78 million tons of new demand in 2026, while additional programs—including Japan’s forthcoming emissions trading system (GX-ETS)—are expected to stimulate local markets.
Corporate buyers are also becoming more selective, prioritizing integrity standards and broader sustainability outcomes. Certifications such as the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM)’s Core Carbon Principles, along with project co-benefits, are increasingly guiding procurement decisions.
On the supply side, investment remains strong despite a dip in overall funding announcements in 2025. Total disclosed financing reached $15.8 billion, including roughly $9 billion directed toward nature-based projects to support the transition to higher-integrity methodologies.
At the same time, companies are moving to secure future supply. The value of forward carbon credit agreements rose 58% in 2025 to $5.8 billion, driven largely by demand for engineered removals and reflecting a growing preference for long-term offtake contracts. The trend is expected to continue this year.
Pricing dynamics are also shifting toward future delivery. Forward prices for both nature-based and engineered removal credits are projected to rise through 2030, with afforestation, reforestation and revegetation (ARR) credits showing particularly strong increases relative to spot markets. Avoidance credits, including cookstove projects, are also expected to appreciate as buyers shift toward higher-quality supply.
Limited availability of high-integrity credits is likely to support higher offtake prices, as project developers incorporate financing costs associated with stricter standards.
Together, the trends point to a market increasingly defined by compliance demand, long-term supply agreements and a growing premium for credibility and durability.
Read more: Voluntary Carbon Market Sees Sharper Price Signals As Integrity Gap Widens, New Report Shows
