A comprehensive new analysis warns that many nations are placing undue reliance on future carbon removal technologies, a strategy that could undermine their ability to hit climate targets.
The study, titled “Implications of states’ dependence on carbon dioxide removal for achieving the Paris temperature goal”, was conducted by researchers at the University of Oxford and was published in peer-reviewed academic journal Climate Policy.
Examining the long‑term plans of 71 countries, the analysis found that nations from China, the U.S. and the EU to Nepal and Fiji are banking heavily on both conventional (such as afforestation) and experimental (for example, direct air capture) removal methods.
Together, the plans assessed represent more than three‑quarters of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Relevant: ICVCM Approves Six New Carbon Removal Methodologies
Authors argue that in many cases, countries’ expectations for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) exceed what is technically, economically or ecologically plausible.
Existing uncertainties in scaling new removal technologies, risks to natural ecosystems, and competition for land resources are acknowledged, yet rarely addressed, in the plans themselves.
The report also flags equity concerns, warning that overreliance on removals may shift burdens to future generations or poorer nations.
Many countries plan to fulfill climate goals by counting carbon removals carried out overseas, raising questions about verification, double counting, and fairness.
The findings make clear that removals should play a supporting, not foundational, role in climate strategy—reserved for historic or unavoidable emissions once cleaner pathways have been exhausted.
In policy recommendations, the authors call on governments to reduce assumptions about removals in climate pledges, establish distinct targets for residual emissions and removals, and strengthen transparency around sequestration approaches.
They argue that by doing so, nations can lower risk, sharpen credibility, and better preserve the chance of maintaining their goals under the Paris Agreement.
Read more: EU Amps Up Its Carbon Removal Strategy With New Call For DACCS And BECCS Innovations
