Airlines preparing for the first compliance deadline under the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) are facing a tightening supply of high-quality carbon credits, according to new analysis by BeZero Carbon.
The aviation sector, responsible for about 2.5% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, is expected to expand as passenger demand rises, while low-carbon alternatives remain years from large-scale deployment.
Under CORSIA, airlines must offset emissions growth on international routes using eligible credits alongside other decarbonization measures. However, the availability and quality of those credits are emerging as key concerns.
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Registry data indicates that roughly 32 million eligible credits have been issued so far, far below the estimated 150 million credits airlines may need by January 2028 to meet Phase 1 obligations.
BeZero assessed 81% of currently eligible credits and found all were rated at ‘BB’ or ‘B’, suggesting a moderately low to low likelihood of delivering their claimed emissions reductions.
Looking ahead, only about 23% of potential future supply is expected to achieve a rating of ‘BBB’ or higher, indicating a moderate likelihood or better of delivering climate impact.
Compounding the challenge, only ten projects or programs globally have secured host-country authorization to issue CORSIA-eligible credits, highlighting a bottleneck tied to government approvals.
“Without an increase in supply, airlines could face a crunch for CORSIA credits by 2028. But scaling this market cannot come at the cost of integrity,” Sebastien Cross, Chief Innovation Officer and co-founder of BeZero, said in a comment.
Airlines will need to prioritize higher-integrity projects and incorporate more rigorous risk assessments into procurement strategies to balance compliance requirements with environmental credibility as the scheme approaches its first major deadline.
Read more: Verra Applies First CORSIA Labels To Voluntary Carbon Credits From Africa
