The 61st meeting of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in Sofia, Bulgaria concluded without reaching an agreement on the timeline for the seventh assessment report (AR7), which will synthesize the latest climate science, Eco-Business reported today.
The AR7 is particularly significant as many nations aimed to have it ready by 2028 to inform the United Nations’ (UN’s) second global stocktake (GST), a critical process that evaluates global progress towards the Paris Agreement’s climate goals.
During the week-long discussions over 230 delegates from 195 member governments revisited this unresolved issue from the previous meeting in January.
A significant number of countries, including Belize, the US, the Netherlands, and the UK, supported an accelerated timeline where the three working group reports would be completed by June 2028.
They argued that this would ensure the IPCC’s findings could contribute effectively to the GST, maintaining the organization’s policy relevance.
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A group of 40 IPCC authors from developing nations also emphasized in an open letter that the AR7 reports “can and must” be produced by this date.
However, strong opposition came from countries like Kenya, India, China, and South Africa.
These nations cautioned that rushing the timeline could lead to compromised quality in the reports, with India warning that “haste leads to shoddy work” and under-representation of developing countries in the scientific contributions.
They advocated for a longer timeline, more in line with previous assessment cycles, to ensure the robustness and inclusivity of the reports.
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The meeting also saw some progress, with delegates agreeing on the outlines for two special reports: one on “Climate Change and Cities” and another on “Short-Lived Climate Forcers,” both slated for publication in 2027.
Despite the lack of consensus on the AR7 timeline, these agreements mark an important step forward.
Ultimately, the decision on the AR7 timeline has been postponed until after the AR7 scoping meeting in December 2024.
The IPCC plans to finalize the timeline, as well as the work plans and budgets, at its next plenary session in early 2025.
This delay underscores the challenge of balancing scientific rigor with the urgency of policy needs, reflecting the complex dynamics within the IPCC.
As some experts noted, while the postponement allows for further consideration, it also leaves unresolved tensions that may continue to impact the process moving forward.
