Greenhouse gas emissions continue to stay at record levels with no sign of the decrease that is needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C. That is according to the Global Carbon Budget report that was released during the COP27 climate summit on November 11th.
The report forecasts total global CO2 emissions will come to 40.6 billion metric tons (GtCO2) in 2022. Fossil CO2 emissions are projected to rise 1.0% compared to 2021, reaching 36.6 GtCO2, and emissions from land-use change like deforestation, are projected to be 3.9 GtCO2 in 2022.
The report states that there is now a 50% chance that global warming of 1.5°C will be exceeded in nine years if current emissions levels stay.
The carbon budget so that there is a 50% likelihood to limit warming to 1.5°C is reduced to 380 GtCO2 (if emissions remain at 2022 levels) and 1230 GtCO2 to limit to 2°C (30 years at 2022 emissions levels).
The world would have to decrease 1.4 GtCO2 each year to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
In 2022, the Global Carbon Budget report estimates that the atmospheric CO2 concentrations will reach an average of 417.2 parts per million which is more than 50% above pre-industrial levels. The projection of 40.6 GtCO2 in 2022 is close to 40.9 GtCO2 in 2019 – the highest annual total ever.
The conclusion points to the fact that right now the world is not taking the action required to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
According to Professor Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor at UEA’s School of Environmental Sciences: “Our findings reveal turbulence in emissions patterns this year resulting from the pandemic and global energy crises… If governments respond by turbocharging clean energy investments and planting, not cutting, trees, global emissions could rapidly start to fall.”