Carbon Direct has released its flagship 2026 State of the Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) report with a focus on carbon dioxide removal (CDR), pointing to a market ready for larger deployment and scale whose future progress is at risk due to hesitant buyers.
The publication notes that while currently the infrastructure, science, and solutions are scale-ready, and policies and standards are on their way to catalyze further growth, the robust future of CDR is uncertain amid lacking buyers who would provide the needed advancement support.
Most of the organizations that have set 2030 climate targets are yet to embark on CDR procurement, which could bring a new wave of acceleration if companies utilize removals to turn their climate plans into near-term action, as suggested by scientists.
Sanna O’Connor-Morberg, Director of Strategy & Markets for Carbon Direct, stated, “With 2030 only four years away, most organizations with climate targets have yet to actually engage in carbon dioxide removal procurement—representing both an immediate need and an enormous opportunity to catalyze the market at the scale required.”
Another factor that could help spur CDR motion is the potential inclusion of CDR into net-zero strategies as per updated industry standards and the creation of mandatory demand via compliance mechanisms.
But future progress won’t be possible without present demand, the report warns.
Based on organizational targets, demand projections suggest that by 2050, the CDR market could potentially reach up to two gigatonnes. However, the current buyer activity depicts a far lower trajectory, with the removals market standing at only 8 million tonnes, covering a mere 0.4% of that two-gigatonne target.
“The science, solutions, and supply of CDR are ready now and are essential alongside aggressive decarbonization. Decisive action from buyers is the missing link to scale the market at the speed required. The escalating risk of climate overshoot leaves no room for delay,” O’Connor-Morberg added.
Bodie Cabiyo, PhD, Director of Interdisciplinary Science for Carbon Direct, commented, “Early buyers aren’t just meeting their climate obligations; they’re strategically positioning themselves with better pricing, supply security, and competitive advantage, all while enabling critical climate solutions to scale.”
Despite the critical need for both emissions reductions and CDR in the fight against the worst outcomes of climate change, the report notes that CDR now represents a small fraction of the VCM, standing at only 6% of the overall market.
Talking about the CDR supply, Cabiyo stated, “High-quality CDR supply is critically scarce—fewer than 10% of CDR projects we review meet our rigorous bar—yet we are in a moment where the potential for high-quality CDR solutions has never been greater.”
At the moment, there is over 90 Mt of contracted CDR with delivery expected in the future.
The report also observed the market distribution between nature-based solutions and high-durability approaches, highlighting that nature-based ones are responsible for 95% of spot credits, and durable pathways represent the remaining 5%.
Read more: Carbon Direct And Pachama Join Forces To Supercharge Forest Carbon Tech
While investments in nature-based solutions are on the rise, the support is still insufficient to contribute towards 2030 corporate targets if new buyers enter the market. High-durability CDR approaches, on the other hand, face bigger challenges, as only a small group of projects has secured the reliable demand needed for deployment, and many planned projects of this type risk becoming insolvent if the lack of stronger demand signals persists.
Looking ahead, in 2026, the report notes that the critical CDR gap is not in market readiness but in “translating corporate climate commitments into the purchasing activity that will define what’s available—and at what cost—for everyone in the years ahead.”
