The European Commission’s first assessment of progress toward the EU target of 50 million metric tons of annual CO2 storage capacity by 2030 has concluded that current plans from obligated oil and gas companies would deliver less than two-thirds of the required capacity.
Published on May 28, the report estimates that companies subject to obligations under the Net-Zero Industry Act are on track to provide approximately 29 million tons of annual CO2 injection capacity by 2030, significantly below the EU’s 50-million-ton objective.
According to the Commission’s analysis, Member State plans indicate that around 33 million tons of annual injection capacity could be delivered through currently announced storage projects. However, industry groups argue that the shortfall reflects a lack of implementation rather than a lack of technical potential.
Ingrid Sundvor, Co-founder and Executive Director of the Carbon Balance Initiative, said the findings demonstrate that obligated oil and gas companies are not currently on track to meet the storage capacity required under Article 23 of the legislation. “Strong and dissuasive enforcement by Member States is going to be essential to match investments to Article 23’s ambition,” she said.
Storage Demand Remains Strong Despite Capacity Gap
The report also highlights a discrepancy between official projections and independent project tracking. Analysis from Article 23 Watch suggests that more than 41 million tons of annual injection capacity could be achievable if announced projects proceed according to developers’ stated timelines and capacities.
Toby Lockwood, Director of Carbon Management Practice at Clean Air Task Force, noted that while reaching the full 50-million-ton target would likely require additional projects or accelerated expansion of existing sites, obligated entities should still be capable of delivering significantly more capacity than current submissions indicate.
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At the same time, the Commission’s findings challenge claims that insufficient market demand is limiting carbon storage deployment.
According to the report, more than 100 carbon capture projects representing over 80 million tons of annual captured CO2 are currently seeking support through the Innovation Fund, suggesting that storage availability is now the primary bottleneck.
Industry groups are now calling for Member States to implement robust penalty frameworks by the June 30 deadline established under the Net-Zero Industry Act, alongside stable carbon pricing mechanisms and additional risk-reduction measures at both EU and national levels to help close the projected storage capacity gap and keep the bloc on track toward its 2030 target.
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