According to DNV’s ninth annual Energy Transition Outlook, renewed US support for fossil fuels will delay the country’s emissions cuts by about five years, but the impact on global progress will be marginal, thanks to accelerating efforts elsewhere, particularly in China.
The report estimates that US annual CO2 emissions could rise 500-1,000 million metric tons higher than previously forecast, as policy rollbacks stall the pace of renewable deployment.
In contrast, China continues to lead the global transition, accounting for 56% of all new solar PV capacity and 60% of global wind installations in 2025. The nation’s exports of clean technologies are also helping sustain international momentum toward decarbonization.
Energy Security Now Driving the Transition
DNV projects a slightly slower global trajectory, with the 2050 energy mix split nearly evenly (51% fossil, 49% non-fossil) and global CO2 emissions 4% higher than forecast in last year’s report.
Even so, energy security concerns, particularly in Europe, are accelerating the adoption of renewables and nuclear power as countries pivot away from imported fossil fuels.
“Security has become the dominant driver of energy policy, and as our forecast shows, this is in sum accelerating the shift to renewables,” said Remi Eriksen, DNV Group President and CEO.
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The report finds that security-focused policies will cut global emissions by 1-2% annually, with nuclear generation rising to 9% of electricity supply by 2060 – one-third higher than it would have been without such measures.
Global emissions are expected to fall 43% by 2050, reaching net zero after 2090, while the 1.5°C carbon budget will be exhausted by 2029. Electricity generation is forecast to more than double by 2060, rising from 21% to 43% of total energy demand, driven by surging solar and EV adoption.
Artificial intelligence will also shape future demand, with data centers expected to consume 5% of global electricity by 2040, of which 3% will be AI-related.
While hard-to-abate sectors will require stronger policy support, DNV concludes that technological progress and cost reductions continue to propel the global energy transition forward, even amid shifting political winds.
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