For four years in a row, global warming projections have barely budged, according to the latest update from the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), released earlier this week at the COP30 climate talks in Belém, Brazil. Ten years after the Paris Agreement, the report paints a sobering picture: new targets for 2035 are doing little to bend the curve toward limiting warming to 1.5°C.
The CAT’s “2030 and 2035 targets scenario” remains at 2.6°C, unchanged from last year. Almost none of the 40 governments analyzed have updated their 2030 pledges, a key benchmark for avoiding the most dangerous climate outcomes. Meanwhile, warming under current policies fell slightly, from 2.7°C to 2.6°C, but largely due to adjustments in how China’s emissions are modeled, rather than meaningful policy action.
“The consequences of delay go beyond lost time: instead of building momentum, it fuels doubt and erodes trust in the process,” said Ana Missirliu of NewClimate Institute. Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, warned that without cuts exceeding 50% by 2030, overshooting 1.5°C becomes increasingly likely, with devastating effects for ecosystems and human populations.
Despite the stagnation, some progress is evident. Prof. Niklas Höhne noted that the Paris Agreement has reduced projected warming by roughly 1°C over the past decade and sparked global investment in cleaner technologies. Yet he cautioned that governments must accelerate action, strengthen 2030 targets, and implement enforceable policies to avoid the looming climate crisis.
Sofia Gonzales-Zuñiga of Climate Analytics added, “Every new fossil gas deal…costs billions to people elsewhere in the world. The atmosphere does not negotiate, and it does not wait.”
Read more: COP30: Newsom Warns U.S. Is Losing The Clean Energy Race To China
