According to a recent blog post from Rystad Energy, the escalating conflict in the Middle East is raising new questions about the future of large-scale carbon capture projects across the Gulf, threatening to slow one of the oil-rich region’s main strategies for cutting emissions while continuing to export fossil fuels.
Carbon capture, utilization and storage, or CCUS, has been a cornerstone of the Gulf’s approach to decarbonization. Governments and national oil companies have backed major projects tied to natural gas processing, refining and petrochemical operations as they try to reconcile climate commitments with hydrocarbon expansion. More than 98% of planned carbon capture projects in the Middle East and North Africa are located in Gulf Cooperation Council countries, led by state energy firms.
But the analysts say the current conflict is exposing how closely those projects are linked to the oil and gas infrastructure they depend on.
“The escalation of conflict in the Middle East is a stress test for the region’s carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) projects and how bankable they remain when hydrocarbon operations are disrupted,” according to Rystad.
Qatar illustrates the risk. A carbon capture facility planned at the Ras Laffan Industrial City was designed to capture about 4.1 million metric tons of carbon dioxide a year and support the country’s lower-carbon liquefied natural gas exports. The project, backed by state producer QatarEnergy, was awarded a roughly $1.4 billion engineering and construction contract to Samsung C&T in late 2025.
Yet damage and operational interruptions at Ras Laffan highlight the vulnerability of such projects. “If LNG throughput is curtailed by damage or security disruptions, the CO2 stream feeding the capture plant disappears,” the analysis noted.
Across the region, expectations for carbon capture deployment are being revised downward. Early projections of about 20 million tons a year of capture capacity by 2030 now look optimistic, with analysts seeing something closer to roughly 12 million tons as capital shifts toward restoring energy production.
The ripple effects could reach beyond the Gulf. A prolonged disruption to energy supply routes could push fuel prices higher, increasing the cost of operating energy-intensive capture systems and raising construction costs for new projects. Analysts estimate that a 50% jump in energy prices could lift the levelized cost of carbon capture and transport by roughly 30%, potentially pushing some projects beyond expected carbon price levels in Europe.
Even so, long-term demand drivers remain intact. As global buyers scrutinize the carbon footprint of fuels and industrial goods, Gulf producers are still think carbon capture will play a central role in preserving the competitiveness of their energy exports. But any extension of the conflict could change the equation.
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