ClimeFi has published insights on the trends and developments expected to be seen in 2026 in the durable carbon dioxide removal (CDR) market.
The insights are based on data gathered in a December 2025 request for proposals (RFP) launched by ClimeFi on behalf of a client interested in expanding their CDR portfolio.
Reviewed by ClimeFi’s Carbon Removal Analyst Tosca Dori, the insights help set the scene for what’s expected to come in the durable CDR market in the year ahead.
The RFP accumulated information from 114 CDR suppliers from 39 different countries, working on 142 projects centered around an array of CO2 removal pathways.
Distilling this information, the insights highlight a market trend of tightening CDR supply and signs of converging prices.
According to the analyzed data, even with projections showing a significant scaling of supply capacity through 2030, just 58% of that supply remains unreserved across the 2026-2030 window, with 2026 being the most constrained at 52%.
Simultaneously, there is an acceleration of price convergence within pathways as CDR suppliers reach operations, secure verification, and start to build a track record. This trend is especially evident in data analyzed by ClimeFi from two RFPs run in June 2025 and December 2025.
Despite this trend, ClimeFi clarifies that the market is still in early-stage development, leaving substantial room for evolution, noting that while convergence is evident for mature pathways such as biochar, factors like MRV methodologies, quality benchmarks, and regulatory frameworks influence suppliers’ price strategies as they continue to develop.
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Across all considered pathways, including biochar, DACCS, BECCS, other biomass approaches, mCDR, and mineralization, the report notes that 66% of projects are now at the commercialization stage.
ClimeFi signals that in 2026 credit issuances are expected to shift away from the dominant biomass-based removals to a more diversified carbon removal supply, driven by large-scale DACCS and BioCCS, as well as smaller ERW and Marine CDR projects coming online.
In this regard, projects such as Stratos (DACCS) and Green Plains (BioCCS) are expected to launch this year and anchor deliveries, with ClimeFi projecting that 2026 deliveries in general will increase by 43% year-on-year.
Along with this market evolution, standard bodies and registries are also refining and maturing, making registry selection between increasingly competing entities a more complex decision for suppliers.
Further details on the analysis can be found here.
