A study conducted by researchers from the Department of Earth Science and Engineering at Imperial College London claims that existing projections for the speed of deploying carbon storage are unfeasible. The study offers a new approach to modeling the pace at which the technology can be developed and put into effective use.
The paper, published in Nature Communications, took into consideration specific parameters such as suitable geology and technical and economic limitations and created an improved method for projecting the potential of carbon storage technology as a means to reach global climate targets.
To be able to limit the increase in temperature on our planet to less than 1.5 degrees by the end of this century, we need to not only curb CO2 emissions but also remove and permanently store significant amounts of legacy carbon from the atmosphere.
As estimated by climate action initiatives, in order to avoid the potential cataclysmic effects of warming, the world needs to store carbon at a rate of 1–30 gigatonnes per year by 2050.
In contrast, the team behind this paper suggested that a more realistic expectation would be to aim for six to sixteen gigatonnes of CO2 to be stored per year.
The researchers point out that the higher projections are not as certain as the lower ones, mainly due to the lack of governmental and international support for such large-scale projects.
Combining real-world data on growth patterns in different industries like mining and renewable energy together with the existing amounts of stored CO2 and exploring many different scenarios, the team put together a new, reliable approach for making long-term projections for underground carbon storage.
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Yuting Zhang, lead author of the paper, explained that their model, which looks into carbon storage capacity, institutional capacity in different regions, as well as potential limitations to development, can be a valuable tool for policymakers working on climate plans and target setting.
Co-author Dr. Samuel Krevor shared that their study is the first one to apply growth patterns from other industries to the carbon storage sector.
By using historical data and trends, the team is confident that their new model offers a more realistic approach for predicting how quickly carbon storage can be scaled up, helping the worldwide community set more attainable decarbonization targets.
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