- BCG says carbon credit buyers’ target portfolio prices have roughly tripled since 2022, reflecting greater willingness to pay for higher-quality credits.
- Higher-rated credits are commanding substantial premiums, while the supply mix is shifting toward projects targeting methane, refrigerants and other higher-impact emissions.
- Falling issuance and growing demand from voluntary and compliance markets could put further pressure on companies to increase their carbon procurement budgets.
The carbon credits market is undergoing a shift as companies participating in the voluntary carbon market become more willing to pay for higher-quality projects, while demand for carbon removals continues to reshape procurement strategies, according to a new Boston Consulting Group survey of roughly 300 buyers.
BCG found that buyers’ target portfolio prices have roughly tripled since its 2022 survey, despite relatively modest changes in publicly reported average credit prices. In 2022, 84% of surveyed buyers aimed to pay $30 or less per metric ton, while just 3% targeted prices above $50. By early 2026, about one in five buyers still targeted prices below $25, while roughly one in four were targeting $51 to $100 per ton. A premium group was prepared to pay more than $100.
Buyers are putting a premium on higher-quality credits
The shift reflects growing differentiation between credits rather than a simple increase across the entire market. BCG said the proportion of retired credits rated BBB+ or higher doubled from 12% in 2020 to 24% in 2025, while those credits now command prices four to five times higher than lower-rated credits.
Supply is also changing. Superpollutant projects, including those targeting methane and refrigerants, represented roughly one-fifth of credits issued in 2025, according to BCG. At the same time, issuance of legacy renewable-energy and REDD+ credits has declined.
That creates a more fragmented market, particularly for carbon removals. BCG said suppliers of durable removal technologies such as direct air capture and enhanced rock weathering continue to seek prices well above what many mainstream buyers are prepared to pay. In other segments, companies may have budgets available but struggle to find credits that meet their requirements.
Carbon markets face changing supply and demand
Broader market data points to a tightening balance between supply and demand. Climate Focus reported that global carbon credit retirements reached 98 million tonnes during the first half of 2026, while issuance fell to just under 100 million tonnes. It expects around 200 million credits to be issued for the full year, which would be the lowest annual issuance level since 2019.
Policy-driven demand is another factor. BCG highlighted international aviation’s CORSIA scheme and Article 6 of the Paris Agreement as sources of demand that are not fully captured by traditional voluntary-market retirement figures.
For corporate buyers, the changing market could mean that climate procurement budgets based on older assumptions underestimate the cost of securing the types of credits companies increasingly want. BCG said buyers that continue planning around its 2022 pricing assumptions could find that meeting future climate goals costs substantially more than anticipated.
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