The voluntary carbon market is showing signs of structural maturation, with businesses increasingly retiring higher-quality carbon credits while phasing out lower-rated options, according to new analysis from independent carbon ratings agency BeZero Carbon.
Based on registry data covering the period from 2022 to 2025, the study finds that the share of retirements involving the highest-rated credits, those rated ‘A’ to ‘AAA’, has more than doubled, rising from 10% in 2022 to 22% in 2025. Over the same period, the proportion of retirements involving lower-quality credits rated ‘C’ or ‘D’ fell sharply, declining from 31% to 17%.
BeZero’s Carbon Rating system evaluates credits on an eight-point scale based on the likelihood that a project will genuinely avoid or remove one ton of CO2 equivalent. The latest data suggests buyers are increasingly prioritizing integrity, permanence and verification as scrutiny of climate claims intensifies.
Supply tightens as demand shifts to higher integrity
The shift is particularly evident in buyer behaviour away from historic energy-sector credits, which have often been associated with lower additionality and quality concerns. When these legacy energy credits are excluded, total credit retirements in 2025 reached nearly 150 million, highlighting continued demand for credits that meet higher standards.
On the supply side, total issuances have fallen by around 50% from their 2022 peak, bringing issuances closer in line with retirements and helping to rebalance the market after years of oversupply.
The analysis also shows that the link between price and quality is becoming more pronounced at a sector level.
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In the afforestation, reforestation and restoration sector, each incremental BeZero rating notch corresponds to an average price premium of 87%. REDD+ credits command an average premium of 46% per rating notch.
Similar trends are visible elsewhere. ‘BBB’-rated renewable energy credits trade at roughly twice the price of ‘B’-rated equivalents, while ‘A’-rated cookstove credits fetch double the average price of those rated ‘D’.
Sebastien Cross, Co-founder and Chief Innovation Officer at BeZero Carbon, said: “Carbon markets today are incomparable with where we were three years ago. Our analysis finds that businesses are increasingly showing a preference for higher-rated, lower-risk projects.”
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