The industrial biochar market is tightening at an unprecedented pace, with 89% of 2025 carbon removal credits already committed—up from just 62% in March, according to new data from carbon removal marketplace Supercritical.
Their latest analysis, which monitors over 80% of the global supply, shows that buyers are racing to secure high-quality credits as demand surges and supply lags behind projections.
Market prices for biochar rose 8% from Q2 to Q3 2025, and operational projects are now trading at a 10–20% premium due to their reliability.
Even 2026 credits are drawing early attention: 40% have already been locked into offtake agreements, signaling strong competition more than a year in advance.
“High-quality projects are in high demand and commanding significant premiums,” said Sandy Doran, Supercritical’s Supply Lead. “Companies that act now can lock in both certainty and price stability.”
Relevant: Supercritical Releases New Guide On Structuring Biochar Offtake Agreements
Several key dynamics are driving the surge:
- Supply is tighter than forecasted. Supplier capacity is 23% below expectations, largely due to delayed project construction and financing challenges.
- Quality matters more than ever. Nearly all high-integrity projects are sold out, while 80% of credits from failed or lower-quality projects remain unsold.
- Buyers are planning further ahead. With 2026 credits already moving fast, multi-year offtakes are becoming the new norm.
Buyers who once waited until year-end to purchase credits now face greater risk, as “the credits that used to sit on the shelf until December are now gone by September,” the report warns.
With only 11% of top-tier 2025 supply left on the open market—excluding Supercritical’s exclusive Exomad credits—experts suggest acting fast to avoid higher prices and limited options.
Spot market buyers who wait may find themselves priced out—or worse, forced to settle for low-quality offsets that don’t meet scrutiny.
Read more: Supercritical And Exomad Green Expand Their Collab Into A Multi-Year Partnership
