The market designed to help airlines offset their carbon emissions, CORSIA, is sitting on a peculiar paradox: theoretically abundant supply, and a functional shortage of credits airlines can actually use, carbon analytics firm Sylvera has explained in a recent post.
New data from Sylvera shows that while roughly 640 million tonnes of credits are potentially eligible for the first phase of CORSIA—the United Nations’ aviation carbon offset scheme—only 47 million tonnes currently satisfy all requirements.
The gap is not a lack of qualifying projects, Sylvera says, but a failure of host country governments to formally authorize credits under the Paris Agreement’s Article 6 framework.
Even factoring in countries that Sylvera assesses as likely to issue authorisations, the accessible pool reaches only 118 million tonnes, which is still well short of the 174.5 million tonnes of demand expected during CORSIA Phase 1 alone.
“The strangest thing about this market is that everyone is behaving rationally and the outcome is still irrational,” said Ben Rattenbury, Sylvera’s vice president of policy.
The market seems to be locked in a standoff, as buyers are holding back due to supply uncertainty, while host governments are reluctant to issue authorizations at prevailing price levels, Rattenbury explained. Meanwhile, a $2–$5 billion compliance deadline is drawing closer.
The demand side is heavily concentrated. Sylvera’s modelling identifies Emirates, United Airlines, Qatar Airways, and Turkish Airlines among the largest single obligors in Phase 1.
At least one carrier in the top 15 by obligation has indicated it does not plan to comply, adding further uncertainty to projections already complicated by a 53-million-tonne swing tied to the outcome of the Iran conflict.
Relevant: New EU Draft Rules Could Disqualify Almost All Existing CORSIA Phase 1 Credits
The longer-term market shift is also significant, Sylvera warned. Voluntary buyers, who represented roughly 85% of final carbon credit demand in 2025, are projected to see their share fall to around 30% by 2033 as compliance demand from CORSIA, domestic schemes, and government purchases to meet their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) absorbs increasing volumes of available supply.
To address this “intelligence gap,” Sylvera has launched its Article 6 & CORSIA Hub, a platform consolidating supply tracking, sovereign risk scoring, airline exposure modeling, and pricing in a single tool.
“The supply to meet aviation’s climate obligations exists,” said Allister Furey, Sylvera’s chief executive. “What’s been missing is the data infrastructure to connect it with demand.”
A webinar titled “Article 6 & CORSIA: Pricing the New Gatekeeper of Carbon Credit Value” will be held on June 17, with registration required here.
Read more: Verra Updates Article 6 And CORSIA Label Guidance, Releases New Tool For Credit Buyers
