AlliedOffsets – a data and tech company holding the world’s largest aggregated data for carbon offsetting, issued a new report called 2023 VCM Forecast Report. The analysis navigates through the future of the voluntary carbon market (VCM) based on the supply, demand, and price dynamics.
It highlights the following findings:
- Existing corporate buyers may drive demand for up to 1.5 billion metric tons of carbon credits by 2030.
- Based on the issuance trends of existing and new projects, the supply for credits could reach up to 600 million metric tons by 2030.
- In the long-run there is an opportunity for the VCM to grow exponentially, contingent on the market addressing quality concerns and improving trust.
The report also sheds light on the activity levels in the VCM, in particular the retirement of carbon offset credits in 2023. Through the end of October, Allied Offsets calculates a total of under 150 million tons of CO2e retired across the 21 registries it follows. The number is 20% below the retirements for the same period in 2022.
Even though the industry has taken a small step back, some projects from the US registries have seen record credit requirement volumes. Removal credits have also seen an uptick in retirements this year which confirms their growing significance in the VCM scene.