International airlines could face a cumulative carbon compliance bill of up to $127B between 2024 and 2035 as a widening mismatch between supply and demand for aviation carbon credits threatens to push prices dramatically higher, according to new projections from MSCI Carbon Markets.
The carbon market data firm forecasts that the price of credits under the United Nations’ global aviation emissions program, known as CORSIA, could reach $100 per tonne by 2035, a near-eightfold rise from current levels, as reported by the Financial Times (FT) on Friday.
Under the scheme, airlines in participating countries must purchase carbon credits to offset international emissions that exceed 85% of their 2019 levels. Around 130 countries currently participate, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and the United Arab Emirates.
The projected cost surge reflects a structural supply problem—and the shortfall is likely to intensify in the years ahead.
Carbon credits under CORSIA must come from projects that reduce or remove greenhouse gases, such as forest protection schemes, but the number of projects meeting the scheme’s integrity requirements falls well short of expected airline demand.
Relevant: Billions In CORSIA Compliance Spending Held Up By Missing Govt Approvals, Sylvera Warns
Emirates is projected to shoulder the largest individual burden among carriers, with estimated costs of around $8 billion under a high-price scenario—close to 20% of its 2025 operating revenue. Under more favorable supply conditions, that figure could fall to roughly $2 billion.
Qatar Airways and United Airlines follow, with estimated exposures of $6 billion and $5 billion respectively. Korean Air, along with Turkish Airlines, Singapore Airlines, British Airways, Cathay Pacific, and American Airlines, are also among the carriers expected to face significant credit-purchase obligations.
The financial pressure on airlines could intensify further if the European Union (EU) proceeds with plans to impose an additional carbon levy on flights departing from within the bloc, a proposal currently under consideration in Brussels.
Read more: New EU Draft Rules Could Disqualify Almost All Existing CORSIA Phase 1 Credits
